War, Coffee, and the Supply Chain - What Comes Next (March 2026)

This month, we’ve been hosting live online video discussions focused on the impact of the war on the coffee industry with our Patreon community.

The first session was rich, honest, and incredibly insightful.

What stood out most was how differently people across the value chain are experiencing this moment, and how important it is to hear those perspectives in the same room.

We’re continuing that conversation in our next session this week:

March 26 at 11 AM AEDT | March 25 at 5 PM PT

If you want to be part of these discussions, you can join by becoming a member of our top-tier Patreon community for $20 per month.

These are not presentations.

They’re open conversations with people across the coffee industry, trying to make sense of what’s happening, together. We’d love you to join us by registering for the top tier of our Patreon community for approximately $20 US per month. You’ll get access to 2 monthly live video group discussions as well as early access to the podcast (ad-free) and our exclusive community industry insights blog post.

WHAT THIS WAR MEANS FOR COFFEE

There’s a tendency right now to treat the war as something that will affect “some parts” of the coffee industry.

Shipping. Maybe fuel. Maybe prices.

But not everything.

I don’t think that’s how this is going to play out.

What we’re looking at is not a single disruption. It’s a layered disruption on top of an already unstable system.

We’ve been talking about a coffee crisis for years now—climate pressure, rising costs, labor shortages, and structural weaknesses across the supply chain.

What this war does is add pressure to every single one of those existing fault lines.

To understand what comes next, we need to stop thinking in isolated impacts and start thinking in orders of consequence.

Read the full breakdown of how this impacts the coffee supply chain →

LAST WEEK ON THE PODCAST: War, Trade, and Coffee

A solo series with Lee Safar

Last week, I released a five-part solo series on The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast by Map It Forward, looking at how this war is likely to impact the global coffee industry.

This isn’t a predictions series.

It’s about understanding systems, how energy markets, shipping routes, financial systems, and supply chains are connected, and how disruption moves through them.

Across the series, I break down:

  • How war affects coffee

  • How coffee moves through global shipping systems

  • Who gets hit first in the value chain

  • The economic domino effects already in motion, and

  • what the industry should be paying attention to right now

If you’re trying to make sense of what’s happening and what it could mean for your business, this series will help you think more clearly about the risks ahead.

THIS WEEK ON THE PODCAST: The 2026 Brazilian Coffee Harvest

with Jonas Leme Ferraresso (Brazilian Coffee Agronomist)

This week, we shift from systems to the field.

In this five-part series, Brazilian agronomist Jonas Leme Ferraresso shares what’s actually happening on the ground across Brazil.

And in many ways, it challenges what the market thinks it knows.

One of the key takeaways from this series is this:

Coffee production doesn’t respond instantly to current conditions.

What we’re seeing in the 2026 harvest is the result of multiple previous seasons — including drought, frost, and heat stress.

So while recent rains have been strong and well distributed, that doesn’t automatically mean a record harvest.

It may point to something else entirely.

A healthier 2027, if conditions continue.

Across the series, we explore:

  • The impact of war on production in Brazil

  • What’s really happening with the 2026 harvest

  • How technology, genetics, and irrigation are shaping production

  • Why sustainability conversations often miss the reality for farmers, and

  • How exports, tariffs, and market behavior are evolving

If you buy coffee, this is one of the most important conversations you can be listening to right now.

The full series is available now if you’re a Patreon backer or a paid YouTube channel member. New episodes are rolling out daily this week.

Thank you to the advertisers of this series - Arkena Coffee Marketplace, Honduran Coffee Alliance, and Arcadia Green Coffee

BlogLee SafarBlogComment