This Week at Map It Forward: Week 27, 2025

The Industry & MARKET

Why Are Coffee Prices Sliding Again?

After weeks of intense volatility, the Arabica futures market is now edging back toward the 300 range, a sharp correction from recent highs above 420.

Here’s what we believe is contributing to the drop:

Speculative unwind: Remember, we recently discussed on the podcast that speculators (including hedge funds and traders) had bet on high prices? Well, they seem to be exiting their positions to lock in profits or cut losses. As they sell, it creates a sort of momentum that may cause other speculators to do the same.
Improved weather in Brazil: There was a fear last week that there might be frost in Brazil which made the market go up for a day or two. The frost hasn’t eventuated (yet) and the “forecasts” (predictions) for the 2025–26 harvest remain strong (we have no way of knowing if this is true, optimistic, or false until later in the end of the harvest. Nonetheless, the optimism means that people expect there will be lots of coffee in the future.
No hard disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz (for now): While geopolitical risk remains, fears of immediate supply chain blockages have eased slightly. Tensions in the region remain high, so this may change quickly.
Weak demand signals: Roasters around the world are cautious, and we are hearing of an accelerated number of businesses closing. These closures are having immediate and secondary impacts on roasting companies, which is leading to them buying less or delaying commitments.
Global macroeconomic pressure: Inflation, interest rates, and sluggish retail coffee sales in some markets are contributing to risk-off sentiment. Customers and businesses are being more cautious, spending less, and taking less risk.

This price drop does not mean the coffee crisis is over. It means speculative confidence is down, but structural problems remain: crop delays in Colombia, uncertainty in Vietnam, and unstable logistics in key regions, labour shortages across the supply chain, climate issues, etc, etc. Stay informed on our social media for updates @mapitforward.coffee

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The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast (GLOBAL)

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This week on the global podcast, Lee is joined by esteemed coffee industry expert Darrin Daniel from Cityful Press Coffee Consulting. Throughout this series, Lee and Darrin lay out the landscape of how the specialty coffee ecosystem eventuated and the landscape of coffee politics pre- and post-Houston.

Watch the series:

1. The Evolution of Specialty Coffee

2. Do Coffee Nonprofits/NGO's Help Producers?

3. The Roots of SCA and CQI

4. The Potential For Impact In Coffee

5. What Does The Future of Coffee Hold?