This Week at Map It Forward: Week 28, 2025
The Industry & MARKET: C MARKET Drops Below 290
After months of volatility, Arabica coffee futures have now dropped below 290, a sharp decline from the recent peak above 420 just months ago.
While this may look like good news on the surface for buyers, the reality is more complicated. This price correction reflects uncertainty and fear in the market, not a healthy return to balance.
Here are some of the contributing factors:
Speculators are pulling back: Profit-taking and unwinding of long positions are driving down prices quickly.
Predictions of a strong 2025–26 Brazilian crop are creating optimism, but these remain speculative. Actual harvest data won’t be clear until later in the year.
Geopolitical risk remains, but with no major escalation at key shipping chokepoints (like the Strait of Hormuz), traders are currently pricing in more stability. This could change quickly and inject more volatility into the
Demand continues to soften: Reports from across the supply chain point to cautious purchasing, growing closures, and declining retail sales in key markets.
Global economic pressure is weighing on decision-making, with many businesses choosing to delay commitments and minimize risk.
What Does This Mean?
This price correction does not mean the coffee crisis is over. If anything, for many smallholder producers, it could mean even tighter margins. Structural challenges, delayed harvests in Colombia, climate-related stress in Vietnam, and widespread supply chain instability remain unresolved.
For roasters, this may present an opportunity to revisit pricing strategies or lock-in contracts.
But let’s be clear: short-term relief in the futures market doesn’t fix the long-term structural problems in coffee.
If you intend to remain in business in 2026, now is the time to reassess your buying relationships.
A Quick Note on Relationships
One consequence of the price surge that is now becoming painfully clear is broken trust.
When the C Market surged past 400, we witnessed the fallout:
Buyers walked away from contracts.
Producers withheld supply.
Payment terms were renegotiated or ignored.
Long-term relationships were strained under pressure.
Some didn’t survive.
Now, as prices fall, things are returning full circle:
Producers remember who honored their word, and who didn’t.
Roasters who were sidelined or priced out are seeking new supply chains.
Exporters who chased short-term gains may find themselves with no one left to call.
(As Alejandro Cadena warned in our podcast series, this moment would come.)
This isn’t just a price correction, it’s a trust correction. In a relationship-driven industry like coffee, broken commitments cost more than money. They cost access, loyalty, and long-term opportunity. And when the market shifts again, as it will, those who acted with integrity will be in a stronger position than those who didn't.
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The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast (GLOBAL)
George Howell returns for the 2025 edition of our annual series:
“The Coffee Industry According to George Howell.”
George is a pioneer of the specialty coffee movement, and in this series, he joins us to explore the foundational questions that continue to shape the industry.
Watch the series:
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Map It Forward Middle East podcast
Angela Barrero, Coffee and Cacao Farmer (Colombia) joins us on the Map It Forward Middle East podcast from her farm in Quindío, Colombia, to discuss Will we have coffee and cacao in 25 years? This five-part series explores the urgent challenges and viable solutions facing producers across the supply chain, especially through the lens of regenerative agriculture and farmer resilience.
Watch the series:
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Map It Forward Japan
This week, our team in Japan is translating and sharing our powerful conversation with Alejandro Cadena of Caravela Coffee, first released earlier this year.
In this series, Alejandro outlines why 2025 is unlike any other year in the history of the industry, and what coffee professionals across Japan and the world should prepare for.
Watch the series:
Access “Introduction to Regenerative Coffee Farming” On-Demand for as little as $10 at the new Map It Forward On-Demand Learning Hub here: www.ondemand.mapitforward.coffee
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