The Next Phase of the Coffee Crisis - Consolidation | Week 36, 2025
Coffee INDUSTRY & MARKET: The Next Phase of the Coffee Crisis - Consolidation
TL;DR: Bigger companies are buying or merging across coffee. Expect fewer suppliers with more power, stricter terms, and longer lead times in some categories. There are upsides too: steadier logistics and more finance/support from larger partners. Protect your margins and keep options open.
What’s Happening (In Plain English)
Major traders and brands are combining or changing owners.
Distressed assets have been picked up by stronger players.
Compliance rules (traceability/deforestation) raise fixed costs, which favor scale.
Cash is tighter, so big balance sheets win more deals.
Why It Matters to Small Businesses
Choice narrows. Where you had 4–5 partners, you might have 2–3.
Power shifts. Terms, specs, and timelines are set by bigger players.
Volatility stays. Prices still move; bigger firms just manage risk better.
Paperwork grows. More data, more audits, more waiting if docs aren’t perfect.
Logistics may improve. Larger networks move containers faster, but on their schedule.
What This Means for Your Business Type
Roasters & Importers
Fewer counterparties. Big suppliers set pace and product mix.
Stricter terms. Tighter specs, firmer payment terms, higher MOQs.
Working-capital squeeze. More deposits/margins; credit gets choosier.
Product mix shift. Volume programs prioritized; microlots can be choppy.
Ops reality. Logistics are more reliable, but less room to jump queues.
Bottom line: Run one primary + one real backup per key origin. Guard gross margin like oxygen.
CafEs & RETAIL Brands
Wholesale pressure. More frequent price reviews from your roaster.
Less variety, steadier basics. Core blends are safer; special lots rotate less.
Longer lead times. Packaging/equipment tied to big distributors; backorders linger.
Service consolidation. Fewer service partners; know your SLAs (Service Level Agreements).
Bottom line: Keep menus flexible and timelines realistic; talk to your roaster early.
Producers & Exporters
Buyer concentration. Fewer outlets; spot sales harder.
Performance enforcement. Delivery/quality penalties stick.
Finance + support. More pre-harvest finance and agronomy, but tied to strict data.
Differentials split. Mid-grades pressured; premiums cluster in verified/traceable lots.
Paperwork load. Mapping and chain-of-custody are non-negotiable.
Bottom line: Diversify buyers (major + specialty + regional). Level up compliance to keep premiums.
They say consolidation isn’t “good” or “bad.” It’s just the way market cycles work. It’s a power shift. I guess it depends on where you’re at in the supply chain and who you work for. Either way, there’s no going back now. We have entered a new phase of this crisis, and the steps you’ve taken to protect yourself are about to show you if your efforts have paid off.
To find out Map It Forward’s thoughts we had on some current mergers, check out this post: https://youtube.com/shorts/EMMsmK-bhZA
THIS WEEK ON OUR PODCASTS….
NEW ON OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL: As a YouTube partner, all new uploads to our channel come with automatic audio overdubs in many different languages. We go to a lot of trouble to make sure that the transcript is accurate for a better experience, so we hope you enjoy it. You can turn this feature on, go to “Settings” in the bottom right of the video, and then select “Audio Track”…ENJOY!
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Now here’s who we’ve got on our podcasts this week…
The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast (GLOBAL)
Series Theme: Let’s Talk About What’s Going on in Coffee
Guest: Lee Safar - Map It Forward Founder
Why watch: Solo updates from Lee Safar on Map It Forward’s 2025 changes, the evolving coffee crisis, and how we’re thinking about the next 12 months.
Episode guide
Let’s Talk About What’s Going on in Coffee - A big-picture scan of 2025: price shocks, consolidation, shifting risk, and how Map It Forward is adapting projects, content, and client support. https://youtu.be/S4zMs9MC8_4
Coffee Price Volatility - What’s driving the swings, how volatility shows up in P&Ls, and practical ways operators are tightening exposure without freezing growth. https://youtu.be/6ftNp7-jMxE
Coffee Industry Consolidation - Why deals are accelerating, what the power shift means for small businesses, and the playbook themes we’re watching. https://youtu.be/dD8uLQcDgfY
Coffee Supply Chains Are Reorganizing - Routes, lead times, compliance (traceability/deforestation), and where resilience is improving vs. where flexibility is shrinking. https://youtu.be/gqU1hIegSxc
What Can We Expect Next in Coffee? - Scenario planning for the next 6–12 months and how we’re positioning Map It Forward’s work to be useful through the cycle. https://youtu.be/k7xm8F-PGUI
Note: None of the information in this series should be taken as advice for your business.
Map It Forward Middle East podcast
Series Theme: The Changes at the Coffee Quality Institute (CQI)
Guest: Michael Sheridan, CEO at Coffee Quality Institute (CQI)
Why watch: Michael Sheridan (CQI) joins to unpack changes announced at SCA Expo (Houston) regarding the CQI–SCA licensing arrangement for the Q Grader program, what changed, why, and what it means going forward in our region. This series first aired on the global podcast in June; we’re re-airing it for Middle East listeners now that the Q-Grader program has been sunset.
Episode guide
The History and Mission of the CQI - How CQI started, what it set out to solve, and how certification fit into that mission. https://youtu.be/H9FPF9bcHf8
The Agreement Between the SCA and the CQI - What the new licensing arrangement covers, governance questions it raises, and practical implications for stakeholders. https://youtu.be/qrpaONy_4oo
Your Reaction to the Changes to the Q - Michael responds to community feedback, concerns from students and instructors, and immediate transition issues. https://youtu.be/1K26tkBX4aw
What’s Next for the CQI - Program pathways after the Q changes, priorities CQI is focusing on, and how success will be measured. https://youtu.be/G0qBhu9mwvw
The Long-Term Focus for CQI - Where CQI aims to add value over the next few years and how the wider ecosystem (education, testing, standards) may evolve. https://youtu.be/vnS_x5f7_nM
Map It Forward Japan
Series Theme: The Changes at the Coffee Quality Institute (CQI)
Guest: Michael Sheridan, CEO at Coffee Quality Institute (CQI)
Why watch: Same series and flow as the Middle East Podcast above, re-aired for the Japan audience. Michael Sheridan (CQI) discusses the CQI–SCA licensing arrangement for the Q Grader program, what changed at SCA Expo (Houston), and the road ahead for CQI. Japan faces the same transitions; use this to understand certification changes and how they impact training and buying.
Episode guide
The History and Mission of the CQI - How CQI started, what it set out to solve, and how certification fit into that mission. https://youtu.be/H9FPF9bcHf8
The Agreement Between the SCA and the CQI - What the new licensing arrangement covers, governance questions it raises, and practical implications for stakeholders. https://youtu.be/qrpaONy_4oo
Your Reaction to the Changes to the Q - Michael responds to community feedback, concerns from students and instructors, and immediate transition issues. https://youtu.be/1K26tkBX4aw
What’s Next for the CQI - Program pathways after the Q changes, priorities CQI is focusing on, and how success will be measured. https://youtu.be/G0qBhu9mwvw
The Long-Term Focus for CQI - Where CQI aims to add value over the next few years and how the wider ecosystem (education, testing, standards) may evolve. https://youtu.be/vnS_x5f7_nM
Access “Introduction to Regenerative Coffee Farming” On-Demand for as little as $10 at the new Map It Forward On-Demand Learning Hub here: www.ondemand.mapitforward.coffee
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