Is Demand for Coffee Slowing Down? | Week 35, 2025
Coffee INDUSTRY & MARKET: Is Demand for Coffee SLOWING DOWN?
Coffee prices are up again this week. Supply is definitely tighter, but that’s only half the story. On the demand side, signals are mixed across the chain and across regions. When you break it down by upstream, midstream, and downstream, you get a better picture of what’s going on.
UPSTREAM DEMAND — Farmer/Mill → Exporter / (for some arabicas) Exchange
What this means: Are exporters (and, for exchange-eligible lots) actively competing for coffee at origin?
What we’re seeing:
Selective, not absent. Buyers are prioritizing lots that are easy to move (logistics), easy to prove (traceability), and broadly usable (specs that fit multiple outlets, including exchange).
Thin exchange buffers raise the bar. Certified stocks on the exchange have been low, so coffees that could be certified are at a premium.
Producers are measured. In some regions, particularly Brazil, farmers are selling to meet cash flow but not rushing; that keeps tensions high in a year already full of supply frictions.
Bottom line upstream: Demand is strong but picky. It’s still a seller’s market for clean, well-documented, easy-to-ship coffee.
MIDSTREAM DEMAND - Exporter/Exchange → Importer/Roaster
What this means: Are buyers committing to FOB shipments or drawing down exchange stocks?
What we’re seeing:
Timed, but not gone. Some importers are postponing or rerouting Brazil while they price in the new 50% U.S. tariff; others are pulling forward coffee to cover from alternative origins.
Corporate caution is visible. Bloomberg reported that Starbucks will reduce U.S. roasting/packing schedules from 7 to 5 days starting January 2026, a demand/operations signal at scale.
Carrying (holding inventory) costs bite. Higher financing costs make big inventories less attractive, which can look like weak demand even when end-use is steady.
Bottom line midstream: The picture is complicated, more about when and where coffee lands than whether it’s needed.
DOWNSTREAM DEMAND: Roaster/Cafe → Consumer
What this means: Are people buying drinks and bags, and at what price points?
What we’re seeing:
U.S./parts of Europe: a gentle downshift, especially in at-home (pods/retail) and some premium café tiers.
Asia & the Gulf: steady to strong. Value chains in China and tourism/store growth in the GCC keep out-of-home demand healthy.
Consumers trade down before they drop out. Size, syrups, and frequency adjust first.
Bottom line downstream: Mixed. Softer in some Western channels; resilient in Asia and the Gulf.
TAKEAWAY: We’re navigating a supply shock + uneven demand world. Prices are being pulled higher by policy/logistics friction and thin exchange buffers, while demand is re-mixing - cooler in some places, firm in others. Expect this tension to persist into 2026.
THIS WEEK ON OUR PODCASTS….
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Now here’s who we’ve got on our podcasts this week…
The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast (GLOBAL)
Series Theme: What Is Quality in Coffee?
Guest: Reza Kosar - Co-Founder/Managing Partner, Slick Coffee Co. (Oman)
Why watch: This is a companion series to Ian Fretheim, which aired before Ian’s series. Both explore the same questions with interesting perspectives on a grounded look at how we judge quality today, tools vs. outcomes, competitions vs. customers, and where technology actually helps.
Episodes:
The Tools That Assess Coffee’s Quality — What cupping, sensory frameworks, and lab tools measure—and what they miss. https://youtu.be/InfIqtHJuNQ
Defining Quality in the Coffee Industry — Whose definition counts: producers, buyers, or consumers? https://youtu.be/tmwLIE95SoM
Coffee Competition and Coffee Quality — Are competitions pushing genuine quality or performance signals? https://youtu.be/H2yD6MMZQ0s
The CVA isn’t Solving Problems — Why new frameworks risk adding complexity without fixing fundamentals. https://youtu.be/j5WGfEwzXkQ
The Future Technology of Coffee — Practical tech that can raise quality without breaking the business. https://youtu.be/mcMti6iN64g
Map It Forward Middle East podcast
Series Theme: What Is Quality in Coffee?
Guest: Ian Fretheim, Director of Sensory Analysis, Cafe Imports (USA)
Why watch: A companion series to Reza’s Kosar’s series with the same flow, a different lens. How professionals can align sensory rigor with commercial reality in 2025.
Episodes
Tools for Assessing Coffee Quality — Method, calibration, and the trade-off between precision and speed. https://youtu.be/5iEIRX6pU18
How Do We Define Quality? — Building definitions that travel across origin and market contexts. https://youtu.be/PxpoXDy2YNk
Quality, Hype, and Coffee Competitions — Separating signal from noise when trophies meet purchasing. https://youtu.be/6ll7-9yy8-Q
The CVA Won’t Fix Anything in Coffee — Structural issues first; scoring frameworks second. https://youtu.be/yA0s1aGZ2Yw
Q Graders, Cuppers, and Technology — Human expertise + the right tools = durable quality systems. https://youtu.be/w57Wv5DY18U
Map It Forward Japan
Angela Barrero (Quindío, Colombia)- Biochar & Resilience on Coffee Farms
Why it matters: Weather volatility and water stress are reshaping coffee farming. This series (translated into Japanese) focuses on biochar as a practical tool within regenerative systems.
Part 1: Stabilizing Coffee Supply with Regenerative Ag - How regenerative practices stabilize yields and improve resilience over cycles. Watch: https://youtu.be/Tvy5uRft0Qo
Part 2: Water Instability at Coffee Origins - Diagnosing water challenges and farm-level tactics to manage scarcity and excess. Watch: https://youtu.be/oD0wyoeNtmg
Part 3: Biochar’s Role During La Niña and El Niño - Why biochar matters under extreme oscillations and how it supports soil function. Watch: https://youtu.be/Sf4Ia3DELhg
Part 4: Is it Going to Get Easier to Grow Coffee? Realistic outlook on agronomic difficulty, costs, and where innovation can help. Watch: https://youtu.be/W-llrWOesG4
Ep 5: The Basics of Making Biochar - Inputs, simple methods, quality considerations, and where to start on-farm. Watch: https://youtu.be/NL6n7bIU79w
Access “Introduction to Regenerative Coffee Farming” On-Demand for as little as $10 at the new Map It Forward On-Demand Learning Hub here: www.ondemand.mapitforward.coffee
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