[This Week On The Podcast] "Biochar For Coffee" with Angela Barrero
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I hope you’re staying grounded in these wild of times. Here’s what we’re focusing on this week at Map It Forward:
THE MARKET
Two critical shifts are happening in coffee right now:
Tariffs on imported coffee into the U.S. – Announced under President Trump’s trade policy, these are effectively taxes initially paid by importers but passed on to consumers, contributing to inflation. The tariffs apply to all origin countries except Mexico, which is currently exempt.
Volatility in the coffee futures market – Despite no meaningful change in the fundamentals of coffee supply, prices have dropped sharply. This signals that speculators are betting on a recession, anticipating a reduction in consumer demand and discretionary spending. We have no way of knowing whether this will eventuate or not at this stage.
The intersection of these two events is triggering a wave of fear and uncertainty across the coffee supply chain. The result is a feedback loop that’s positive for some, devastating for others, but reshaping the global coffee trade in real time for everyone involved.
It's also important to note that green coffee isn't the only input affected. Packaging, equipment, and merchandise sourced from countries facing high tariffs will be more expensive to import. This opens opportunities for innovation and diversification of supply chains, but not without disruption.
INDUSTRY IMPACT
Here’s how we expect this volatility to impact different stakeholders of the supply chain:
Producers: different tariff amounts have been applied to different countries. This will prove to be advantageous so some origins (e.g., Mexico, which currently has no tariffs), and will be an issue for origins like Vietnam and Indonesia that have much higher tariffs than the standard 10% applied to most other countries.
Exporters/Importers: In addition to some importers having to pay the cost of the tariff (depending on if they’re the buyer or not), there will almost certainly be an increase in operational costs for both exporters and importers trading with the USA. This may lead to other markets opening up.
Roasters: The need for roasters (and importers) needing to find funding to cover the cost of the tariff may prove to be too much strain for already strained businesses. We expect to see an escalation of business closures and bankruptcies across the USA.
Retailers: They will have to manage the communication of price increases that may lead to demand destruction. Additionally, funding and inventory management will prove more challenging for businesses of all sizes.
Consumers: Inflation and potentially having to change their consumption behaviour
THE PODCAST
While focusing on what’s happening in the markets and industry right now is important, getting to the solutions of how we stabilise things moving forward is an important focus at Map It Forward. Stabilizing the supply of coffee is one way we can create market stability in the future.
In this week’s series of The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast, our guest is Angela Barrero, a coffee farmer at Bodega de la Finca in Quindío, Colombia.
We’re discussing the role of biochar in creating more resilient coffee farms, especially in the face of climate instability.
The 5-part series includes:
This series is essential listening for anyone serious about the future of coffee production and should be understood by all stakeholders in the coffee value chain who intend to outlast the current market volatility.
This is the kind of information that should bring hope to the future of coffee.
Access “Introduction to Regenerative Coffee Farming” On-Demand for as little as $10 at the new Map It Forward On-Demand Learning Hub here: www.ondemand.mapitforward.coffee
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