[This Week On The Podcast] Tariff's, Pricing, and Coffee Supply with Carley Garner from DeCarley Trading
SCA Expo is this week.
It’s a wonderful time to catch up with friends, feel part of the community, and enjoy the warmth and energy of an industry we love. Joy and connection are vital, personally and professionally. Trade shows can be a beautiful opportunity for that, and it’s important to recognize the value of gathering.
But we also need to be honest about what trade shows are designed to do. They’re built to make you feel good by giving you dopamine hits, surrounding you with coffee "celebrities," inviting you to parties, and showing you shiny new tools that suggest everything is under control. The mood is curated. The purpose is sales. The message is: coffee is fine. But coffee is not fine.
We’re in the middle of a global coffee crisis. Tariffs are destabilizing trade. Producers are struggling with declining margins and worsening weather. Roasters are being squeezed. And small businesses across the supply chain are running out of time.
Meanwhile, the biggest stages in coffee are ignoring it, failing to name the very crisis that is shaping the future of this industry.
So as Expo kicks off, here’s what I invite you to consider:
If you’re there to socialize, enjoy it. Connection is real and necessary.
If you’re there to understand the industry, ask hard questions. Look for what’s not being said.
If you’re there to "do business," it’s okay to admit you’re there for the parties, just know that parties won’t solve this.
If you’re starstruck by coffee celebrities, remember that in that environment, many are salespeople first.
If you’re attending for education, ask how many of the sessions are truly addressing the coffee crisis.
If you’re buying equipment, ask where it was made, where it was assembled, and how tariffs will affect the final cost. Sales reps are there to sell, not to protect your bottom line.
2025 is not a year for distractions. We are living through a global trade war and possibly the early stages of a global financial crisis. It’s April, and the hardest months may still be ahead.
Celebrate your community, but stay focused. Ask better questions. Don’t get blinded by shiny things. The future of your place in this industry may depend on it.
This week on the podcast
This week on the podcast we’re joined on The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast by Map It Forward by everyones favourite over the years, Carley Garner, founder and broker at DeCarley Trading, to explain what’s really behind the volatility and uncertainty in the coffee market as well as how these tariffs will impact trading with the United States.
Carley has built her career guiding investors and institutions through commodities markets, and she’s here to help us understand why prices are rising, what’s moving the C-market, and what to expect in the months ahead.
Watch the full series now:
Connect with Carley and DeCarley Trading:
Website: decarleytrading.com
LinkedIn: Carley Garner
Instagram: @decarleytrading
THE Coffee MARKET and industry
In the past week, coffee futures have continued to bounce (volatility without direction) despite no meaningful change in supply fundamentals. Tariffs on coffee remain in place across key producing countries, and on China, which supplies much of the equipment, packaging, and merchandise used throughout American coffee businesses.
Producers are nervous, roasters are hesitating, and across the entire supply chain, businesses are being forced to make critical decisions in an environment with almost no clarity.
This level of uncertainty is not just frustrating—it’s dangerous. It slows the flow of capital, delays purchasing, fractures trust between trading partners, and ultimately creates stagnation. If left unchecked, this moment could evolve into an industry-wide slowdown with lasting effects.
The longer this uncertainty drags on, the more likely we are to see consumer spending decline, businesses run out of runway, and tension across the industry come to a head, as more businesses are forced to close.
Access “Introduction to Regenerative Coffee Farming” On-Demand for as little as $10 at the new Map It Forward On-Demand Learning Hub here: www.ondemand.mapitforward.coffee
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