This Week at Map It Forward: Week 31, 2025
The second half of 2025 is proving to add another layer of challenges to the coffee crisis, and with less than a week till the U.S. tariffs kick in for coffee imports, businesses are scrambling in the US, frustrations are rising at origin, and the coffee industry will be challenged in unpredictable ways once the tariffs kick in.
And with EUDR just over 5 months away, there is only more volatility on the horizon. See how we’re navigating this landscape at Map It Forward on our podcast.
Coffee INDUSTRY & MARKET: 50% US tariffs on Brazilian coffee
On August 1, the United States is scheduled to impose a 50 % tariff on imports of Brazilian coffee. Brazil supplies roughly one-third of the coffee used in the U.S., while the U.S. grows only about 1% of its own coffee.
Traders are scrambling to unload shipments in U.S. ports before the deadline, even diverting vessels mid‑journey and rerouting beans from Canada and Mexico to avoid the new levy.
Importers warn that the tariff will function like a tax on roasters and consumers, and have asked the administration to exempt coffee. To date, there has been no indication that this will happen, but we as an industry still hold out hope.
Analysts expect the tariff to reorder global trade flows, pushing Brazilian beans toward Europe and Asia while forcing U.S. buyers to source more from Africa, Central, and South America.
This reallocation will complicate buying decisions for buyers and logistics for exporters. Buyers of specialty coffee may now be making buying decisions based on tariffs rather than relationships and product preference. This has the potential to further challenge the viability of the specialty coffee movement in the US amidst an already volatile market.
While tariffs dominate the headlines, the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) continues to reshape buying behaviour.
Importers in Europe are already scaling back orders from smallholders in Ethiopia and other African countries because they fear producers cannot meet the stringent traceability requirements.
Traders say roasters are gravitating toward large farms in Brazil and other countries, raising concerns that millions of small farmers could lose access to EU markets.
This has the potential to further challenge the viability of the specialty coffee movement in the European Union amidst an already volatile market.
Takeaway for coffee professionals
Expect price volatility to remain high in the coming weeks as traders adjust to the U.S. tariff and EU regulations.
Roasters and importers will bear the initial brunt of this volatility in consuming countries and should ensure that their communication strategies with their customers are transparent and immediate across multiple platforms to avoid price shocks.
Producers and Cooperatives should monitor policy decisions and be prepared to pivot to different markets (e.g. Asia and the Middle East) where policy decisions are less volatile and demand for coffee continues to boom.
THIS WEEK ON OUR PODCASTS….
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The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast (GLOBAL)
This 5-part series features Kim Thompson and Matt Toogood, co-founders of RAW Coffee Company, the specialty coffee brand that pioneered the specialty coffee scene in the Middle East. Originally aired on the Map It Forward Middle East Podcast in June 2025, these episodes revisit RAW’s origin story and explore the lessons they’ve learned from nearly two decades in Dubai’s evolving coffee industry.
Watch the full series:
Map It Forward Middle East podcast
In this insightful 5-part series, Emirati entrepreneur Saeed Al Blooshi joins Lee Safar to unpack what it really takes to build and sustain a specialty coffee business in the UAE. From navigating labor and supply chain challenges to understanding evolving consumer behavior, Saeed shares his honest experiences as a local business owner in a globalizing market.
Watch the full series on YouTube:
Map It Forward Japan
Vietnam’s specialty coffee movement is still emerging, and Thai Dang from 96B Cafe and Roastery is at the forefront. In this 5-part series, Thai shares what it’s like to build a specialty business in a historically commercial coffee market, and how Vietnam is slowly carving out its identity in the global coffee value chain.
Watch the full series on YouTube:
Access “Introduction to Regenerative Coffee Farming” On-Demand for as little as $10 at the new Map It Forward On-Demand Learning Hub here: www.ondemand.mapitforward.coffee
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