This Week at Map It Forward: Week 32, 2025
Coffee INDUSTRY & MARKET: The Consolidation Wave & What It Means for Coffee
Across the global coffee industry, commercial and specialty, the signs are becoming harder to ignore. A consolidation wave is on the horizon and may be silently already here.
In market cycles, consolidation happens when smaller businesses close or merge, often during times of economic pressure. Larger or better-funded companies move in to acquire market share, assets, supply chain access, and customers. The result? Fewer players, more concentration of control, and a reshaping of the industry.
The current coffee market, with its volatile prices, high operating costs, labor shortages across the supply chain, and shifting demand between specialty and commercial, is fertile ground for this phase of the cycle.
For some, they’ll already be noticing the signs of consolidation happening in their ecosystems, while others aren’t quite noticing it yet.
All producers, exporters, importers, roasters, cafe owners, and coffee professionals employed by these businesses benefit from understanding how consolidation works in market cycles and how they relate to coffee in this cycle.
Spotting the signs early can make the difference between surviving and disappearing.
Spotting Consolidation: What to Watch
Increased closures without announcements: Quiet shutdowns and “restructuring” moves are already happening, particularly in markets where saving face matters.
Mergers & acquisitions: Larger companies are acquiring smaller ones for their brand, customer base, supply chain access, or location rather than building from scratch.
Contract buyouts: Struggling businesses selling future supply contracts to better-funded competitors.
Reduced diversity in offerings: Fewer independent importers, roasters, or cafés means less variety and more standardized products.
Market share shifts: Consolidation favors those with capital, access to financing, and scalable infrastructure.
Why It Matters Now
We’re already in the early stages of this part of the cycle. Producers under pressure may turn away from specialty coffee for quicker cash in the commodity market. Roasters struggling with costs may scale back or merge. Spot coffee is nowhere to be seen. Cafés could see reduced supplier options and rising wholesale prices.
For small and medium-sized businesses, fortifying your financial position, exploring collaborations, or even identifying acquisition opportunities yourself could be a way out of this if you have a runway that allows you the opportunity to do so.
Businesses, no matter how small or large, involved in commodities like coffee, are experiencing stress and volatility fatigue at this stage of the cycle. Who survives and who doesn’t will depend on a number of factors. This is when the way you built your business ecosystem matters more than ever!
THIS WEEK ON OUR PODCASTS….
If the work we do at Map It Forward is valuable to you, your business, or your professional life in coffee, consider supporting this independent work by joining our Patreon, becoming a premium subscriber on our YouTube Channel, or purchasing our workshops for yourself, your staff, or your producing partners.
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It really does help us get this information out to more people.
Now here’s who we’ve got on our podcasts this week…
The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast (GLOBAL)
Brendan Adams, Founder of Semilla Coffee (Canada)
In this 5-part series, we explore whether the ambition to “make coffee better” is still realistic in today’s market, and how the current climate impacts that mission.
This series is delightful, interesting, and Brendan presents an actionable thoughtfulness in this series that more people in the coffee industry should be taking notes from.
Watch the series:
Map It Forward Middle East podcast
Reza Kosar, Co-Founder/Managing Partner of Slick Coffee Co. (Oman)
In this 5-part series, we dive deep into defining and measuring quality in coffee, from tools and competitions to the role of technology.
This series with Reza is a fascinating and challenging look at the complexities of an industry, traversing issues that include the scientific approach, industry politics, historical power structures, and the ongoing volatility of our industry.
Watch the series on YouTube by clicking on the episodes below:
Map It Forward Japan
Felipe Croce (FAF Coffees, Brazil) & Angel Barrera (Belco, Colombia)
Initially released soon after President Trump’s inauguration earlier this year, this series with Felipe Croce and Angel Barrera, exploring the year ahead in 2025, was a huge hit with our audience globally.
This week, it’s been translated for our Japanese audience, thanks to our Map It Forward colleague in Japan, Keisuke Kuga.
The Japanese subtitles are available on our YouTube channel by clicking on the episodes below:
Access “Introduction to Regenerative Coffee Farming” On-Demand for as little as $10 at the new Map It Forward On-Demand Learning Hub here: www.ondemand.mapitforward.coffee
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