EP 1534 – Part 4 of 5: Ethiopia’s 2026 Harvest — Trade, Currency & Survival Risk - Matthew Thornton

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Episode Description

This is Part 4 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.

In this episode, we examine the downside scenario: what happens if the harvest does not perform as expected, or if exporters miscalculate demand and pricing.

Matthew explains that while many farmers have already benefited from high cherry prices this season, exporters, especially specialty-focused unions and cooperatives, are operating in what he calls a survival year

Those who purchased aggressively without secured markets may be forced into secondary mills, accepting thinner margins or losses. Meanwhile, larger exporters with import businesses can absorb coffee losses because Ethiopia’s export system allows them to retain foreign currency, which can be leveraged in other import-based ventures

The conversation also turns to a deeper structural issue: the specialty industry often views itself through a quality lens, while much of origin trade operates through commodity and currency logic. When prices surge, farmers may deprioritize specialty differentiation. When prices fall, liquidity becomes the dominant concern.

This episode is about trade mechanics, currency incentives, and what truly determines survival in Ethiopia’s 2026 harvest.

Guest links
Arkena Coffee Market: https://arkenacoffee.com/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/arkenacoffee/