This is Part 5 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.

After examining harvest outlook, pricing structures, stakeholder dynamics, and exporter fragility, this final episode turns to strategy. If you are sourcing Ethiopian coffee in 2026, preparation matters more than optimism.

Matthew explains why specialty prices may feel uncomfortable this year and why buyers should be prepared for sticker shock. We discuss how regional shifts in production affect purchasing decisions, how western volumes may offset eastern tightness, and how quality management risk changes in a bumper crop year.

The conversation also widens to currency exposure. A weakening US dollar, foreign exchange controls, and Ethiopia’s pricing architecture create structural complexity for international buyers. We explore how macroeconomic forces, including speculation in commodity markets, could add volatility to coffee pricing this year.

This episode closes the series by connecting origin realities to global financial dynamics. If you buy, trade, import, or roast Ethiopian coffee, this discussion is about positioning yourself intelligently for 2026.

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This is Part 4 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.

In this episode, we examine the downside scenario: what happens if the harvest does not perform as expected, or if exporters miscalculate demand and pricing.

Matthew explains that while many farmers have already benefited from high cherry prices this season, exporters, especially specialty-focused unions and cooperatives, are operating in what he calls a survival year

Those who purchased aggressively without secured markets may be forced into secondary mills, accepting thinner margins or losses. Meanwhile, larger exporters with import businesses can absorb coffee losses because Ethiopia’s export system allows them to retain foreign currency, which can be leveraged in other import-based ventures

The conversation also turns to a deeper structural issue: the specialty industry often views itself through a quality lens, while much of origin trade operates through commodity and currency logic. When prices surge, farmers may deprioritize specialty differentiation. When prices fall, liquidity becomes the dominant concern.

This episode is about trade mechanics, currency incentives, and what truly determines survival in Ethiopia’s 2026 harvest.

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This is Part 3 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.

In this episode, we examine what happens across the supply chain if the 2026 harvest performs well.

Farmers supplying cherry in the east have already benefited from record prices. Those drying cherry and holding inventory may need to move quickly if demand slows. Exporters are operating in what Matthew describes as a survival season, where quality management and disciplined purchasing matter more than aggressive buying.

In western Ethiopia, bumper production could help offset eastern shortages, particularly in commercial grades. Buyers may shift volume westward to balance books, while specialty lots from the southeast may remain tight.

We also explore a deeper question: are farmers truly gaining market power, or are they simply benefiting from competitive exporter behavior this season? And what happens if expectations rise for 2027 pricing?

This episode maps the winners, the survivors, and the risks beneath a “good” harvest.

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This is Part 2 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.

In this episode, we explore what makes Ethiopia unique as a coffee trading origin. Unlike most producing countries, Ethiopia operates under a government-mandated export pricing system. Each week, the Coffee and Tea Authority publishes a minimum export price list by grade, region, and processing method. Exporters are not permitted to sign contracts below those thresholds.

The system was introduced to prevent underpricing, protect foreign currency inflows, and reduce capital leakage through sister companies abroad. The result is a market where pricing trends upward until it temporarily moves out of alignment with buyers, followed by periodic corrections.

We discuss how this structure changes power dynamics, why it reduces dependence on pure C-market pricing, and what buyers should expect from Ethiopia’s 2026 harvest.

If you source Ethiopian coffee, this episode provides critical context.

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This is Part 1 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.

In this episode, the conversation focuses on the structural overview of the 2026 harvest. Eastern regions are experiencing reduced volumes, western regions are seeing stronger yields, quality is generally positive, and pricing has surged due to currency shifts, liquidity constraints, and increased competition in the cherry market.

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This is Part 5 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.

In this concluding episode, the focus shifts to long-term futures for coffee farming. Pedro and Lee discuss prosperity versus survival, why most producers are locked into short-term decision-making, and how climate change, genetics, migration, and succession are reshaping coffee landscapes. The episode closes with a clear message: coffee’s future depends on whether producers are given the ability to dream, invest, and plan beyond today.

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This is Part 4 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.

In this episode, the conversation focuses on direct trade, traceability, and transparency. Pedro explains why the number of intermediaries is not the issue — evidence is. From farm gate pricing to data integrity, the episode challenges the industry to move beyond marketing claims and into accountable, traceable sourcing relationships.

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This is Part 3 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.

In this episode, the conversation focuses on biochar and carbon credits as tools for resilience — and the risks that emerge when they are rushed into practice. Pedro explains why biochar is not a silver bullet, how carbon markets can become extractive, and why poorly implemented biochar can harm soil biology and farm economics. The episode reinforces the need to centre farmer wellbeing, not financial incentives, in climate solutions.

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This is Part 2 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.

In this episode, the conversation focuses on deforestation and the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), and what it has revealed about the coffee industry. Pedro explains why producers are more likely to lose market access due to supply chain opacity than deforestation itself, and why traceability failures shift unfair responsibility upstream.

The discussion also explores accountability, cost, greenwashing, and why responsible production must be paired with responsible consumption if forests are truly to be protected.

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This is Part 1 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.

In this episode, the conversation focuses on the reality of coffee farming in 2026: volatile prices, undervalued labour, climate shocks, and the deeper risk created when uncertainty is pushed upstream to producers. Pedro introduces Caravela’s definition of prosperity, the ability for farmers to plan, save, and invest in the future, and explains why recent price movements have shifted power dynamics for smallholder farmers.

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