EP 1539 – Part 4 of 5: Smallholder Coffee Farmers and Volatility — Redistributing Risk | Ana Donneys

This is Part 4 of a five-part series examining the lived experience of volatility for smallholder coffee farmers. In this episode, Ana Donneys discusses risk redistribution, generational change, innovation at origin, and the responsibility of the entire value chain to work together long term.

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EP 1537 – Part 2 of 5: Smallholder Coffee Farmers and Direct Trade — The Real Cost of “Direct” | Ana Donneys

This is Part 2 of a five-part series examining the reality of being a smallholder coffee farmer in volatile markets. In this episode, Ana Donneys explains the lived experience of direct trade — including capital requirements, delayed payments, and risk distribution at origin.

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EP 1536 – Part 1 of 5: Smallholder Coffee Farmers and Volatility - What “High Prices” Really Mean | Ana Donneys

This is Part 1 of a five-part series examining the reality of being a smallholder coffee farmer operating within volatile markets. In this episode, Ana Donneys from Cafe Primitivo in Colombia explains what volatility actually looks like at farm level, beyond the headlines about high prices.

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EP 1535 – Part 5 of 5: Ethiopia’s 2026 Harvest — Buying Strategy & Dollar Risk - Matthew Thornton

This is Part 5 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.

After examining harvest outlook, pricing structures, stakeholder dynamics, and exporter fragility, this final episode turns to strategy. If you are sourcing Ethiopian coffee in 2026, preparation matters more than optimism.

Matthew explains why specialty prices may feel uncomfortable this year and why buyers should be prepared for sticker shock. We discuss how regional shifts in production affect purchasing decisions, how western volumes may offset eastern tightness, and how quality management risk changes in a bumper crop year.

The conversation also widens to currency exposure. A weakening US dollar, foreign exchange controls, and Ethiopia’s pricing architecture create structural complexity for international buyers. We explore how macroeconomic forces, including speculation in commodity markets, could add volatility to coffee pricing this year.

This episode closes the series by connecting origin realities to global financial dynamics. If you buy, trade, import, or roast Ethiopian coffee, this discussion is about positioning yourself intelligently for 2026.

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EP 1534 – Part 4 of 5: Ethiopia’s 2026 Harvest — Trade, Currency & Survival Risk - Matthew Thornton

This is Part 4 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.

In this episode, we examine the downside scenario: what happens if the harvest does not perform as expected, or if exporters miscalculate demand and pricing.

Matthew explains that while many farmers have already benefited from high cherry prices this season, exporters, especially specialty-focused unions and cooperatives, are operating in what he calls a survival year

Those who purchased aggressively without secured markets may be forced into secondary mills, accepting thinner margins or losses. Meanwhile, larger exporters with import businesses can absorb coffee losses because Ethiopia’s export system allows them to retain foreign currency, which can be leveraged in other import-based ventures

The conversation also turns to a deeper structural issue: the specialty industry often views itself through a quality lens, while much of origin trade operates through commodity and currency logic. When prices surge, farmers may deprioritize specialty differentiation. When prices fall, liquidity becomes the dominant concern.

This episode is about trade mechanics, currency incentives, and what truly determines survival in Ethiopia’s 2026 harvest.

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