EP 1059 Part 4 of 5 | El Niño Could Change Everything for Coffee (Jonas Leme Ferraresso) Map It Forward
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Episode Description
This is Part 4 of a 5-part series with Brazilian coffee agronomist Jonas Leme Ferraresso and Map It Forward Founder Lee Safar, exploring the realities behind Brazil's 2026 harvest and why the coffee market continues to struggle with uncertainty.
Every year, long before coffee is harvested, predictions begin to circulate about how large the next crop will be. Markets react. Businesses make purchasing decisions. Expectations are formed.
But how reliable are those predictions?
In this episode, Jonas explains why forecasting Brazil's 2027 coffee crop is far more complicated than many market participants appreciate. While current growing conditions suggest the potential for a very large crop, coffee is an agricultural system—not a manufacturing process—and potential means very little until weather, disease, flowering, and fruit development have all played out.
We explore how El Niño influences rainfall and temperature patterns across Brazil, why excessive rain during harvest can create unexpected problems, and how fungal diseases, leaf loss, and delayed harvesting can affect not only this year's production but also the crop that follows.
Perhaps most importantly, Jonas explains why the health of the coffee tree after harvest is just as important as the harvest itself. Leaves damaged by disease, stress from excessive heat, and interruptions to photosynthesis all reduce the plant's ability to support the next flowering cycle.
This conversation is an important reminder that coffee production doesn't operate on certainty. It operates on biology, climate, and time.
If you've heard confident predictions about Brazil's 2027 crop, this episode provides essential context for understanding why those forecasts should always be treated with caution.
Connect with Jonas Leme Ferraresso here: