EP 974 | Part 4 of 5: The Economic Domino Effect of War on Coffee (Lee Safar)
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Episode Description
This is Part 4 of a five-part series: War, Trade, and Coffee — What the Middle East Conflict Means for the Global Coffee Industry.
In this episode, Lee Safar explores the macroeconomic ripple effects that global conflict can trigger across the coffee industry.
War affects far more than the regions where fighting occurs. It disrupts the systems that power global trade — energy markets, shipping networks, financial systems, and currency stability.
Lee breaks down three major economic forces already shaping the global response to the conflict.
The first is oil and energy shocks. Rising oil prices affect nearly every aspect of the coffee industry, from fertilizer production and farm inputs to transportation, roasting energy costs, and food inflation.
The second is freight inflation. As geopolitical risk increases, shipping insurance costs rise and logistics companies reroute vessels to avoid dangerous areas. These disruptions increase the cost of moving goods globally, including green coffee.
The third is currency and financial volatility. Because coffee and oil are traded in US dollars, instability in currency markets can ripple across coffee-producing countries, affecting export pricing, producer income, and hedging strategies.
These interconnected pressures create powerful inflationary forces throughout the coffee value chain.
From rising farm input costs to higher freight prices and increased retail prices, the economic effects of conflict extend far beyond the battlefield.
In the final episode of the series, Lee explores what the coffee industry should be paying attention to now in order to prepare for what may come next.
Connect with Lee Safar and Map It Forward here:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/leesafar/
https://mapitforward.coffee
https://www.instagram.com/leesafar
https://www.instagram.com/mapitforward.coffee