EP1640 Part 5 of 5 | Why Nobody Can Predict Coffee Anymore (Jonas Leme Ferraresso) Map It Forward
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Episode Description
This is Part 5 of a 5-part series with Brazilian coffee agronomist Jonas Leme Ferraresso and Map It Forward Founder Lee Safar, examining the realities behind Brazil's coffee harvest and the growing uncertainty shaping the global coffee industry.
Coffee businesses often focus on weather forecasts, crop estimates, and C Market prices. But what if one of the biggest risks to coffee has nothing to do with rainfall or production?
In this final episode, Jonas explains why geopolitics, fertilizer availability, global logistics, and international trade have become just as important as climate when trying to understand the future of coffee.
Brazil depends heavily on imported fertilizers to sustain one of the world's largest agricultural industries. Much of that supply originates in regions experiencing political instability or relies on shipping routes that have become increasingly vulnerable to conflict. As governments compete for critical minerals and global supply chains become more fragile, coffee producers are facing a new layer of uncertainty that extends well beyond the farm.
We explore why fertilizer availability matters long before coffee is harvested, how rising geopolitical tensions can influence agricultural costs around the world, and why simple assumptions about expanding coffee production overlook the practical realities farmers face every season.
Perhaps the biggest lesson from this conversation is that uncertainty is no longer the exception it has become the operating environment for the global coffee industry. Rather than making bold predictions, coffee businesses need to become better at managing risk, adapting to change, and making decisions with incomplete information.
Jonas also shares a thoughtful reflection on empathy, leadership, and what he hopes the future of the coffee industry can become a fitting conclusion to one of our most important conversations this year.
Connect with Jonas Leme Ferraresso here: