EP 981 | Part 1 of 5: The Coffee Market Isn’t Driven by Coffee (Carley Garner)
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This episode is brought to you by The Honduran Coffee Alliance, connecting Honduran coffee producers with global buyers in a fair, sustainable, and commercially viable way.
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Email: sean@hondurancoffeealliance.com
Episode Description
In this first episode of a five-part series on The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast by Map It Forward, Lee Safar sits down with commodities broker Carley Garner from @Decarleytrading to unpack one of the most misunderstood aspects of the coffee industry: how prices are actually determined.
In coffee, there is a persistent belief that prices reflect supply and demand at origin. But in reality, the futures market is influenced by a far more complex mix of factors, including speculation, algorithmic trading, index funds, and macroeconomic positioning across commodities.
Carley breaks down the relationship between fundamentals and speculation, explaining how these forces interact and why they can at times appear completely disconnected from what farmers, exporters, and roasters are experiencing on the ground.
This episode also explores why hedging feels inaccessible to much of the coffee industry, how the futures market is designed to function, and why it often fails to serve the needs of smaller stakeholders.
If you’ve ever questioned whether the C-Market reflects reality or is something happening around the coffee industry rather than for it, this conversation will give you a clearer framework for understanding how it actually works.
Connect with Carley Garner and DeCarley Trading:
https://www.decarleytrading.com